I’m currently 63-29-6 for NBA picks thus far. I think that’s respectable but what do I know, This is the first time in my life that I’ve really focused on betting NBA games but I’m kind of digging it. I have no idea if the method I’m using for my picks will continue produce this level of success long term, but I’m keeping it until it doesn’t. If you want to follow my daily action, download and subscribe to The Action Network.
Here’s 3 picks for tonight:
DAL -4 vs CHA (-150). The Mavericks are 18-7 ATS at home, 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 against Eastern Conference opponents. The Hornets are 11-14 ATS on the road, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a winning home record and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Wednesday games. These guys hate Hump Day!
SAC +4.5 vs HOU (-150). The Kings are 19-7-1 ATS at home, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against Southwest Conference opponents and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Rockets are 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on the road and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win. I’m playing the percentages on this one and saying the Rockets aren’t hitting their mark tonight.
UTA -12.5 vs PHX (-150). The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against teams in the NBA Pacific, 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after a straight up or ATS loss and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Wednesday games. The Jazz love Hump Day! The Suns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in the previous game and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after an ATS win, so the Suns won’t shine tonight.
You work all season long building your betting bankroll so on Super Bowl Sunday you can go ahead and bet on 20 different things. Super Bowl betting is the most beautiful thing in the world. You can bet on pretty much anything. With that being said I have compiled 20 bets that I have put my own money on for Sunday and decided to share them with you. Will they all win? Nope, actually some are in contradiction of one another but at the end of the day we just want to be up money. These are in no particular order.
Under 9.5 (-130) Total Players with a Rush Attempt.
Ok lets assume Michel, White, Burkhead, Gurley, & CJ Anderson all get carries. That’s a guaranteed 5. Then Brady and Goff probably, That’s 7. That leaves us wiggle room for say a Robert Woods end around & a Pat Devlin Dive (Handsome Fella).
2. Over 11.5 Third Down Conversions (-115)
If we go by team averages this one is going to be tight. Each team is in the top 10 in 3rd down conversion percentage at around 44%. They average 13 and 12 3rd down attempts a game. 44% of 25 is 11. I give the offenses the advantage in this game so I am rolling with the over.
3. No defensive or Special Teams TD’s (-190)
We have 2 teams that are very good at taking care of the ball. Each team averaged .7 Int’s thrown per game and .4 fumbles per game (none in playoffs). If we do have 2 turnovers the chances of one being returned in very slim. Both teams are also in the top 5 in giving up return TD’s this season. Patriots have given up 0 while the Rams only 1.
4. Will the game be decided by exactly 3 points. Yes (+350)
I am one who strongly believes that Vegas is very good at what they do. If Vegas has the line at 2.5 then I’ll take +350 odds on a 3 point finish happening.
5. Will there be 3 unanswered scores in a game. No (+220)
I personally think it will be a good game. Coaching, offense, defense, special teams for both teams are good. In a close game it is rare that one team scores 3 times in a row and I am banking on that here. Keep it close like last time.
6. Will there be a score in the first 4 minutes of the 2nd Qtr. Yes (-115)
Just seems like a game where they possibly feel each other out for the first 11 minutes an then someone going into the red-zone as the 1st Quarter comes to an end. No real science behind this one. All gut.
7. Lost fumbles by both teams. 0 (+150)
Both teams are top 10 in the league in not losing Fumbles. My one worry would be that Rams defensive line causing one but Brady is so smart when it comes to job security.
8. Player to score first TD – Brady +5000
9. Player to score first TD – Goff +5000
I just couldn’t pass up +5000. If you get those odds you have to take them no matter what. Can see Brady sneaking it in now.
10. Will game go to OT – Yes (+850)
Pat is doing something with Buffalo Wild Wings and if the game goes to OT everyone gets free wings and if Pat is involved it will probably happen.
11. Will any of the scoring drives take less time than the National Anthem – Yes (+100)
This might be my lock of the night. O/U on national anthem is 1:43. So many opportunities for drives under 1:43 at end of half, end of game, off a turnover. Love this bet.
12. Under 5.5 Catches for Brandin Cooks. (-105)
13. Under 77.5 yards for Brandin Cooks (-115)
If there is one thing Belichick always does it is take away your best WR. Tyreek Hill at 1 catch for 43 yards against the Patriots last week. He knows Cooks after he played for the Patriots and there is no way he lets Cooks go off.
14. Under 3.5 catches for Phillip Dorsett (-125)
Im not buying the Phil Dorsett hype. I mean look at these stats below and now that he has scored in 3 straight games someone may actually pay attention to him. He’s not going over on 3.5 catches.
15. Rams +3 (-120)
I’m doing it. Im going with the Rams. I know this will probably come back on me but there is something that I really like about this team. I think the can get pressure with 4 and that’s always been the recipe to beat the Patriots.
16. 13 Point Teaser (-125) – Stick with me on this one.
All we need on this one is for the game to fall in between 45 and 71 points and for the score to fall somewhere in between Patriots +10 and Rams +16. When you think about it, seems quite plausible. Only thing that worries me is that 45 number. I can see 24-21 game happening.
17. National Anthem Over 1:43 (-160)
In 1991 Gladys sang the National Anthem and when I listen to it I always get it lasting around 1:34 which would be 9 seconds under on the bet and I really wanted to go there. This is the Super Bowl though. Gladys is a performer. Gladys is a little older. Gladys make take a little more time in between notes to make sure she sounds good. Give me Gladys and the over.
18. Length of time of Brave – Under 4.5 Seconds (-110)
In 91 she sang the “Brave” part for 4 seconds. That was almost 30 years ago. Don’t think Gladys has it in her to carry the brave out for more than 4.5.
19. Coin Toss Tails (-102)
This one is simple. Vegas needs Tails to make money. I’ll root with Vegas and the whole never fails thing.
20. Will Gene Steratore get 1st replay call correct? Yes (-170)
Gene is one of the best to ever do it. I do miss the days of Mike Carey getting every single call wrong in the booth but that’s not how Gene operates. Great Italian guy from the Burgh doesn’t mess up.
21.Patriots -6.5 Alternate Line +150
Just a little if everything falls apart bet. Do I want the Patriots to win by a touchdown? No, but if they do you bet your ass I’ll be there to collect on it.
If you do not like any of these bets there are little 400 different prop bets out there right now. You don’t even have to like football to enjoy gambling on the Super Bowl. Have some fun with it. Good Luck to everyone.
Things were hectic all day in the office today so we didn’t get a chance to make it down to Gabagoools to record so here are our picks for tonight.
Gorms – Lakers +9.5 vs Warriors. They’re fast and they shoots.
Connor – Kansas -5.5 – Kansas off a loss at home with a big bounce back game against Iowa State. Bill Self at home is a force and playing the Jayhawks in Kansas is like sliding an extra loss into the loss column anyways
Digs – Philly -4 vs Houston. It’s Harden vs all the Sixers on primetime TNT. As long as Embiid and Butler play we are good here.
Gorms – 76rs -3 vs Rockets. They’re big and the shoots… and they’re fast.
Connor – Georgetown -1.5 – The Hoyas have been on fire and Mac McClung is my favorite collegiate athlete since Reggie Bush. Hoyas all night long in the District of Columbia tonight and if you’re nervous just take the over.
Digs – Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to win. Again my Russian Friends say she is a lock in Australia.
Gorms – Sharks rout Panthers tonight because they’re fast, and the skate, and they shoots.
Connor – Portland +5 – They travel to Utah and take on the Jazz but Lillipads and McCollum handle Spidah Mitchell and the Mormons. Joe Ingles may hit a game winner but we’ll take the 5 points for Portland and ride the trail thats been blazed for us.
Digs – Philly/Houston Under 23.3.5. Just trust me on this one. I know some things.
On Friday’s Bro Bro Bro bets is going to be a blog. It’s just the best way to give you all the picks for the weekend and not have them get lost in everyone getting hammered Friday Night. With that being said we have some beautiful picks for you this weekend. We are all over the board.
Lets Start with the Appetizers
Gorms – Minnesota Wolves -1 vs Spurs..the wolves are fast and they shoot.
Connor – Warriors -7 – The Boogieman returns to the court and the NBA is over for everyone but the Celtics. The Warriors might score 200 points a game and I can’t wait to watch this team. Warriors @ Clippers and if you don’t like the Warriors -7, take the over 241.5.
Digs – Lets take a trip down to Australia for the Women’s Australian Open. I was speaking with some of our Russian friends and they tell me this Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is the real deal. Get her at +135 to win this weekend right now.
Now the Entrees. Our best picks for the weekend.
Gorms – Saints -3.5 vs LA Rams. Drew Brees wears depends undergarments but he can throw the ball and they’re fast.
Connor – Buffalo -16, They go against a weak Eastern Michigan team. The Buffalo Bulls have one of the best team names in all of College Basketball. Buffalo Bulls? Yeah, take all my money. Bulls of Buffalo -16 and the mortgage is going on it.
Digs – Middlesborough Money-line -125. They go against Millwall and fuck Millwall. I will never forgive Millwall for killing Petey Dunham. RIP.
Time for a nice little dessert.
Gorms – New England patriots+3 vs KC Chiefs….Brady wearing Uggs doesn’t slow them down, he throws the ball very nice…and they’re fast.
Connor – James White over 5.5 catches, Philip Dorsett over 2.5 catch AND score a touchdown. Look, this game on Sunday is going to be an all out war. 3 point spread is a lot against a team thats been to 8 straight AFC Championship games. We’ll see what happens and I’ll slam the Pats, but I love these props for Sunday.
Digs – Chiefs -3. Fuck the Patriots and all their woe is me bullshit. Oh everyone says we can’t win. Get the fuck outta here. Hope that all comes back on them and we on the internet own them. People say don’t bet against Brady but this year I have learned you don’t bet against Mahomes.
We will be back on Monday at 6PM with our regularly scheduled episode. Until then have a great weekend, good luck, and Salud.
Last night was not our best night. I had a first period over that didn’t hit in a game that had 13 goals, unbelievable. 2 other games were lost by a point, but we aren’t here to make excuses. Tonight we are back with 9 new picks and Boston Connor is hiding from some guys after going 0-3 last night. Enjoy.