On today’s show, Pat welcomes former Packer great, Super Bowl Champion, partner in the booth, and friend of the show, AJ Hawk, for the debut of a new segment. They cover Pat’s NFL broadcasting debut and what AJ heard from some of his friends still playing on the Packers. They also discuss the two playoff matchups this weekend, and chat about what AJ has been doing recently, what he wants his endgame to be professionally, and why he isn’t a fan of debate shows on TV (2:07-37:26). Later, Pat and the guys discuss some things that are going on in the world including a potential new comedy tour, a few things that they didn’t know about Zito, they chat about dogs and some of the other creatures that are roaming around the McAfee estate, and do a quick check-in on the weight loss challenge. Plus Pat tells a few more stories about Chuck Pagano when they first met each other. It’s a good one, come and laugh with us. Cheers.
Four games this weekend and every one is going to be a barn burner this weekend. Dogs all over the place with a few sneaky second half bets to blow the doors off this Divisional Weekend.
Chargers @ Patriots is set at 5 right now. I think this is a 3 point game so even a Patriots -5 won’t be a safe call. One of the props I may take for this game is Chargers to lead at half and Patriots to win the game. The Patriots love doing the old ‘lose first half then come back in the second half’ move in the playoffs. As good as the Chargers are, I think Philly makes one too many mistakes in the cold and the Patriots squeeze out a last second field goal to win. This would give us home field for the AFC championship as well.
That’s right, I hate the Colts but I’m all over them. Colts are +5.5 against the Chiefs in Kansas City and I like the Colts straight up in this one as well. The Chiefs don’t have a defense and the Colts are one of the hottest teams in the NFL. First half Colts I like a lot which I’ll put with the full game spread too. If they get a lead, it’s going to be hard for the Chiefs to get into a rhythm because of how great the Colts run game is. They can chew clock with the best of them and because of this, Mahomes might have a little trouble finding a rhythm early. Very excited for the Frank vs Andy battle and hoping for a good one in KC.
Dallas is +7 against the Rams and this team isn’t like the other Cowboys teams we’ve seen in the past. They have a defense this year, something Dallas has never seemed to have in my recent memory. I’m taking Rams team over in this one cause I don’t know if the Cowboys secondary is good enough to hang with the McVay brain who’s cooking up touchdown play after touchdown play. That’s why I’m going money line Cowboys with the Rams team over cause I don’t see this being a 7 point game. Cowboys squeeze a win or it’s a blowout. Let’s hope the Cowboys squeeze it out and we all make a decent chunk of change.
And your NFC champion, the New Orleans Saints. Saints are -8 and I think they end up winning by a couple scores. Foles has been surgical since February 2018 so it’s tough to go against Sir Nick. However, nobody has won in the Superdome and I don’t think the Eagles are going to be the team to do it this year. After Sean Payton wheels out the trophy AND everyones Super Bowl bonus, it’s tough that team doesn’t at least run through the first one they see. Rams vs Saints would be a shootout for the ages but I think the Saints are representing the NFC this year. Naturally, the Patriots represent the AFC.
Recap: Patriots ML, Cowboys ML, Rams team over, Saints -8, Colts +5.5. That’s what I got this weekend but more than anything let’s hope for some great games. Go Pats.
HUGE Disclaimer. Yes we went 4-0 last week for the Wild Card picks and had a great weekend. Last weekend I was very confident though. This weekend I have very little confidence so don’t blame me if you follow these picks and they turn out terrible. Here are the picks for Saturday’s 2 games. I will have a blog coming out Saturday morning for Sunday’s 2 games.
Colts +5 @ Chiefs; O/U 56.5
A game of bad trends and one has to be broken. On the bad side for the Colts, Since 1990 dome teams are 12-44 SU & 18-36-2 ATS in outdoor playoff games. On the other side the Chiefs are 0-9 against the spread at home since 1970 in the playoffs. What do those stats mean? Probably nothing for the Chiefs since they have never had a Patrick Mahomes at QB. The indoor teams going outside though I do believe in. Yes, the Colts have been absolutely on fire since they started 1-5 but have they really played anyone great?
I don’t want to take away from what the Colts have done because you have to play your schedule and they have dominated their schedule but they have not played an offense like the Chiefs. The one big worry for me is that the Chiefs are most likely without Eric Berry who makes a huge difference for that defense but I am still going to go with the Chiefs -5. Low confidence pick. Excited for Andy Reid clock management to fuck me.
Now we head out to LA
Cowboys +6.5 @ Rams; O/U 50
Lets first start with the positive trends for both teams. For the Cowboys underdogs are 37-21-1 ATS and dogs of seven or more points are 19-11-1 ATS since 2003 in the divisional round. For the Rams they are 5-1-1 ATS when they have eight or more days between games under Sean McVay. I am slightly worried about McVay vs the ole Clapper when it comes to coaching edge in this matchup. The thing that makes me lean towards the Cowboys is how they handled the Saints offense and how the Bears HANDLED the Rams. Dallas has very similar skill on defense to the Bears. Yes it was in Chilly soldier field but Goff has shown that he is not great under pressure and after being hit a few times. If Dallas can control the clock with Zeke and then put pressure on Goff I like Dallas in this game. I am going to buy a point and get Dallas at +7 as well as take the under 50.
You can Follow all my picks here on the Action Network. We have been on quite a nice little run. As always bet at Mybookie.Ag
On today’s show, Pat heads to the Indianapolis Colts’ Complex for a couple of incredible interviews before this weekend’s game against the Chiefs. First, newly minted All-Pro offensive lineman, the 6th overall pick, and one of the most dominant players in football right now, Quenton Nelson joins the show for an exclusive interview. Next, 4X Pro Bowler, one of the best WR’s in the NFL, friend of the show, T.Y. Hilton, joins Pat to talk about the entire clown mask situation with Jonathan Joseph and how he thinks the team performed against the Texans. They also look ahead to the Chiefs game, and chat a little about his relationship with Frank Reich and Andrew Luck, and shoot some craps (12:04-25:59). The guys also cover everything around the NFL as they look ahead to this weekend’s playoff games, recap the National Championship game, and welcome in AQ Shipley to chat about Bruce Arians heading to Tampa Bay and some thoughts on his new Head Coach, Kliff Kingsbury (53:19-1:04:57). Pat and the guys also get into a couple deep science issues including the discovery of the plague in Wyoming, Todd has a theory for why the water levels are rising, and they dive back into the oceans vs. space argument. They also chat a little bit about Mason Ramsey, discuss what’s going on in the weight loss competition and how miserable everyone feels, and end the show by having another huge giveaway. It’s a good one, come and laugh with us. Cheers.
Chiefs (-3.5) vs Chargers; O/U 55
Its great when the game of the week with huge implications lands on Thursday night to kick the week off. Chargers going in to KC as 3.5 point dogs.
Stat of the day: The Last 13 home favorites have won the game on Thursday night and are 11-2 ATS.
I DON’ CARE even though I should and it will be the death of me. Chiefs are due for a loss. They’ve been flirting with it for weeks and tonight is the night it comes crumbling down.
One of the reasons why I am not worried about the home Thursday night game stat is that the Chargers are 5-1 ATS on the road this year. Probably because every single game they play is a road game and they are used to it. The Chiefs are also 5-1 on the road ATS this year but just 3-3 at home.
Week 1 of this year the Chargers out gained the chiefs 541 to 362. Tonight is the night the Chargers take down the Chiefs. Plus 3.5 is just too sexy of a number to pass up.
Good luck to all whether you are with me or against me.
- Spencer Ware: Not a bad choice here Stephen since Spencer is now the lead RB since Kareem Hunt is gone. Only problem with this is Ware is doubtful and most likely not playing tonight. Honest mistake that happens. “Oh oh yes yes I forgot”
- Hunter Henry: I Love Hunter Henry. I think he is great. Dude was a stud at Arkansas and has continued to be good in the NFL. There’s only one problem.
OHHHH Hunter Henry tore his ACL in May and hasn’t played a snap this season. In Stephen A’s defense, he said that Hunter has been very effective this season and that could be true. I have heard his rehab has been quite affective. (I really struggle on affect and effect so that’s a complete roll of the dice on that usage)
Lets not jump to any conclusions yet though, lets check in on Smith’s last key player.
3. Derrick Johnson: On May 4, 2018, the Oakland Raiders signed Johnson to a one-year, $1.50 million contract with $500,000 guaranteed and a signing bonus of $250,000. He was released on October 16, 2018 at his request.
Oh well that’s just not a good look. If you hurry you can probably get your application into Stephen A to be his research assistant and if you have any idea of who is playing in the league you would be a step up.
Never Change Stephen, never change.
STAYYYY OFFFF THEEEE WEEEEEEEEDDDDDD
Last night we went 3-3 and if it weren’t for a pesky one point miss in the Thunder game, we would of done better (or worse for the fade). Celtics are back and we’re keeping that mojo going with these picks tonight. Before we begin, let me say its been an honor having you wonderful people fade me. A goal of mine was to be bad enough at any one thing that the opposite is a lock and you people have helped fulfill one of my lifelong dreams. With that being said, tonight, all these picks are 100%, not a doubt in my mind, winners.
First, LAbron and the Lakers roll into the city cursed by Carmelo, which if you aren’t a basketball guy is also the city of JJ Watt. Yup, you guessed it, Houston. The Lakers vs the Rockets, a clash of teams that baffled their expectations by underwhelming them like Black Mass. With that being said, one team has Lebron, and the other team doesn’t. I’m rolling with the Lakers +5.5, they beat the Rockets even if it is in Houston. If they lose, it’s because Dwayne Wade and Lebron had a night full of wine and tears after what many thought was the retirement of Dwayne Wade.
The other night we found out the Clippers, that team that share a city with a King, yeah, they are not a legit contender. Blown out at home against the Raptors, the Clippers now have to go to Popovich Palace and test their craft there. I’m going to take a few things in this game, first and foremost the over of 221.5. On top of that, I’m taking the Spurs -2.5. They’ve been playing good basketball and no matter who is on the Spurs it’s hard to beat Pop on his own court. To go with that lock were going with the team that has been getting slaughtered left and right, yes, the Bulls at +5. The Chicago Bulls win their first game in what feels like a decade tonight against the Magic. You know what they say, Even a blind bull finds a matador from time to time.
Last we have the Mavericks against the Suns, This game is in Phoenix which for you geography buffs is in Arizona. It’s pretty hot in Arizona, however, its not if you’re a Suns fan. Coincidence? I think not. Dallas Mavericks -7 all day everyday. Take it, lock it, love it, and let Luka Doncic, the european man with the euphoric step back three, help win you some cash. The Suns are terrible and the Mavericks aren’t so take us home Mark Cuban. To recap, I’m taking Lakers +5.5, Spurs over 221.5 and -2.5, Bulls +5, and Mavericks -7. So, again, you people should be taking, Rockets, Clippers, Magic, and Suns. I didn’t choose the fade life, the fade life chose me. I wish you all many a dollar in your Thursday night quest for cash.
Note: I love the Chiefs tonight.
Each week on Sunday’s I am glued to the NFL and the internet so I might as well put it to good use and bring to you the best videos of the weekend from the NFL. These are not just highlights and good plays because you can get those from anywhere. These will be different. These are the videos that the big corporate shows are not going to show you. I mean some of the videos might be but you get the point. I’m also going to miss some videos because I’m human, the internet is a big place, and I’m lazy so understand that as well. These are in no particular order. Lets get started.
- Tyron Smith wears a knee brace on his elbow.
The Dude is so big that he has to use a knee brace on his arm. Imagine being that big of a human. I assume if you have to use a knee brace on your arm that you also have to somehow put 2 Magnums together.
2. Bears Wedding Bouquet Toss Celebration
Hilarious. I enjoy that they did the Bouquet toss where none of the dudes really want to catch it and it just falls to that unlucky sole. Don’t be the guy that tries really hard during the Bouquet toss.
3. Mahomes off of one foot across his body 50 yards to convert 4th & 9
The dude has ridiculous arm talent. Mahomes is easily the most fun person to watch in the NFL. He’s like Favre, Rodgers, and Randall Cunningham all in one. This throw was impressive but I still believe this is the best throw I’ve ever seen.
4. Mahomes no look curveball
Is the game that easy for him that he is just out there throwing know look benders on the money now? What is even the point of going no look? And then to curve it like your James McAvoy or Angelina Jolie… what kind of Wizardry are we dealing with here.
5. Our own Pat McAfee covering the miracle in Miami.
I could watch this for hours and hours. Did the Patriots think Ryan Tannehill was going to throw the ball 80 yards for a hail mary, what is Gronk even doing in there. I love nothing more than a professional athlete looking unathletic and Gronk looked like me trying to chase down my dog in the backyard.
6. Frank Gore is more of a man than I
Jesus christ get a cage for that thing. Someone is going to lose an eye.
7. Redskins dancing Santa
Ya ya this is fun and not bad but you’re trying to recreate the goat of dancing mascots and you will never beat the BYU Cougar.