Shoutout Temple for being up at half and then giving up like 40 straight and Vandy Blowing their lead as well to send us to 1-2 on the day and 10-9 overall on Bowl season. Still in the positive boys but we are taking on water. Maybe today we bounce back. Whatever.
Auburn -3.5 vs Purdue; O/U 57.5
Gus Malzahn is 1-4 in Bowl games and got blown out last year by Central Florida. I have a hard time thinking the Tigers will be any more motivated this year to face a middle of the road Big Ten team at the Music City Bowl. In Brohm I trust with Purdue. He turned down the Louisville job to stay at Purdue and I assume that is a lot of motivation for the team. Give me Purdue +3.5 in a game that means more to them.
2. Syracuse -3 vs WVU; O/U 66
Purely a motivational game pick here. WVU is without Will Grier and their starting tackle who are preparing for the NFL, not a good look for the team. Dana Holgersen is 1-4 in his last 5 Bowl games. He just doesn’t seem like someone who cares about a meaningless bowl game. On the other hand Syracuse is a program that hasn’t been to the bowl each of the last 5 years and is good to make a statement. Taking Syracuse and probably the over hoping WVU backup plays ok.
3. Washington St -2.5 vs Iowa St; O/U 58
Hardest game of the day to pick. Washington St is the more talented team but after being as high as #8 in the country and 10-2 they can not be motivated after losing to Washington and losing out on the Rose Bowl. This is not a bowl Wash St wants to be playing in and I’d be surprised if Leach gives a shit. On the other hand Iowa St is happy to be there and won 7 of their last 8 games. Also the Pac 12 has been awful in bowl games. Give me Iowa St and the points to +3.
After the INCREDIBLE Cheez-it Bowl we are 9-7. I really wanted that one. 10-6 just sounds so much better than 9-7 and it was an all time bowl for me and my brand. NINE INTERCEPTIONS and 17 Total Points. It was beautiful.
Enough about the greatest bowl of all time though. You are here for the picks. I’ll be honest I do not feel good about the first 2 games. So trust them about 0%.
Temple -3.5 vs Duke; O/U 53.5
Hate this game. 2 things I like to bet against is an interim coach and a team that is coming into bowl season in a bad way. Well Temple has an interim coach and Duke has been awful coming into bowl season so I’m fucked there. There is a slight difference with the head coaching situation with Temple. Yes, the head coach left for GT but he had all the assistants stay behind and coach for the bowl game instead of hitting the recruiting trail. I’m going to roll with Temple -3 on this one being the hotter team. Low Confidence in this one though.
2. Miami -2 vs Wisconsin; O/U 45.5
Neither of these teams had a great year. Wisconsin started the year at #4 while Miami was ranked #8. They are both now 7-5. I’m Looking for motivation in this game. I trust Wisconsin slightly more to be motivated after losing to Miami last year in the bowl game and it’s going to be 40 degrees in New York City. A cold weather team vs them boys from Miami. Defense and a strong running game travels. I got Wisconsin at +3 which I am very thankful for. Also probably going to take the under.
3. Vanderbilt -4.5 vs Baylor; O/U 55.5
Love Vandy in this spot. They are a much more tested team playing in the SEC ranking better on offense and defense against that tougher competition. Vandy also ended the season on a 5-0 ATS run. Vandy is also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 when they are a favorite of 7 or less. Give me Vandy – 4
YUP, the entire Cheez-it bowl gets the most prestigious award in sports. Did you read the above tweet wrong? Nope. 9 Total interceptions and 17 total points. It was an absolute masterpiece. Look at the first half highlights. I may rename the award the Cheez-it award.
I knew the offenses in this game were horrible and the defenses were good but it was hard to see how either of these teams won a game with these QB’s. Look at their stats. Look how amazing they are. Yes I’m a big Bird Box meme guy.
I hope you were apart of this game because the internet was buzzing and it was truly a Christmas Miracle. Lets not forget about Gary Patterson icing his own kickers. The game really had everything.
Congratulations Cheez-it Bowl. You were so good you almost renamed the award. In fact its now probably the Cheez-it CTGSSOLRDBLWHCCP Award. I will make sure this game will never be forgotten. Also bowl season is over because it won’t get any better than this.
EASSSYYYYYYY W Last night with the Thundering Herd taking our Bowl Season record to 6-2 ATS.
We have two games today which means 2 more opportunities to own the book. Lets get into it. WARNING: First Game is at 12:30.
Toledo -7 vs Florida International; O/U 57
There was a huge development in this game yesterday. Starting QB for FIU James Morgan who has 26 TD’s and 7 INT’s on the season was ruled out which sent the line up to 7 and the Total dropped almost 10 points to 57. I was already on Toledo before this news with them being the more talented and tested team this season but with this news I became much more confident. Toledo averages 41 points a game so I think FIU will have a hard time keeping up with a backup QB. Yes I know Toledo has a backup QB too but he went 3-1 to finish the season with the only loss being to MAC champions Northern Illinois. Toledo -7
BYU -13 vs Western Michigan; O/U 52.5
This is a tough game to pick just because the line is so high. Western Michigan was having a really good season before they lost their Starting QB and went 1-3 the rest of the season. BYU has superior talent but they lack a playmaking offense that takes advantage of that talent. In all honesty I wish I didn’t have to pick this game and in personal life I will not be picking this game straight up. But for purposes of picking every game this bowl season I am going with Western Michigan playing off the motivation they are 13 point dogs. In real life I am teasing the Broncos to +20 with Toledo at a pick em.
5-2 now during bowl season and last night was a tough one to sallow. I said it right here on this fucking website that Ohio was the right pick. KNEW Ohio was the right pick. Was too dumb to stray away from a winning formula. That will not be an issue tonight. The gut and the spreadsheet are on the same page.
Marshall -3.5 v South Florida; O/U 51
Like last night one team is LIMPING into the bowl season. South Florida has lost 5 in a row coming into tonights game that is being played at their home field. At their home field this season South Florida is 1-5 ATS. Their is also some speculation that South Florida Starting QB Blake Barnett may not play. On the other hand Marshall has won 3 of its last 4 and they are 5-0 in their last 5 bowl games. Thundering Herd do not disappoint tonight and we get back to our winning ways. Buy that .5 a point and get Marshall at 3 and enjoy your night. Oh and this.
We are on FIREEEE 5-1 to start bowl season and the excel spreadsheet is doing its job. Who would’ve known that spending 12 hours gathering stats & picks would actually do better than picking games because of a feeling.
Tonights game is a prime example of a game where I really want to take one team but I am sticking with the spreadsheet and what has got me to this point. Tonight’s pick is one that I am very shaky on.
Here is why I want to take Ohio. San Diego St lost four of their final five games. 2 of those games they lost as 18 and 24 point favorites. Not an ideal form to be in rolling into the Bowl Game. On the other hand Ohio has won 5 of 6. San Diego St is 0-5 ATS the last 2 years against non power 5 non conference teams. On the other hand Ohio is 13-2 the last 15 games against teams with a winning record. Ohio also won by 30 in their bowl game last year, they know how to win bowl games. I REALLY WANT TO TAKE OHIO.
HOWEVER, If I go by the spreadsheet that has led to 5-1 so far this bowl season it is a hands down pick for SD State. They started the season 6-1 with wins over Arizona St and Boise. The MWC is a far superior conference to the MAC. San Diego State has the #4 rushing defense in the nation allowing 94 yards a game. Ohio is the #9 rushing team in the nation at 260 yards a game. So if SD St can stop the run they have a very good chance at giving Ohio fits. I am going to stick with the sheet and take San Diego State but I would like it to be known that I am not extremely confident.
Time to bankrupt MyBookie.AG. This is what we have prepared for all season. I have spent hours and hours doing research and I’ve never felt more confident going into a bowl season.
1. Tulane v UL Lafayette: Opening Line 3.5, Current 4; O/U 59
The battle of the bayou in Orlando. Tulane is 1-4 ATS this season as a favorite while ULL is 5-2 ATS this year as an underdog. Tulane also just fired its OC. I have watched Tulane play this year and there is no way I will be betting on them. They are terrible on 3rd down and as a bettor they are incredibly frustrating to watch. ULL has played a very hard schedule with losses to Bama, Miss St, and App St twice so they will not be worried about a team like Tulane. +3.5 is also a line that I have a very hard time laying off of. Give me ULL and the points all day.
2. North Texas v Utah St: Opening Line 11, Current 7.5; O/U 68
This game is going to be all about offense. Utah State is averaging an incredible 47 points a game while North Texas is averaging 36 ppg. Utah State scored over 60 points 4 times so the over in this game is quite an interesting play. On one hand Utah St has lost their head coach Matt Wells to Texas tech so you never know what their motivation will be like but I also think they will be motivated by seeing the line go from 11 to 7.5. Im going to go with the highest scoring team in the MWC over a C-USA team pretty much every day. Give me Utah St -7, Im definitely buying that 1/2 point. Also shoutout Utah St for a gorgeous campus.
3. Arizona St v Fresno St: Opening Line 6, Current 3; O/U 53.5
Fresno should be disgusted that they are currently only a 3 point favorite when they have won 11 games this year against a 7 win Pac 12 team. Herm Edwards has done a lot better than I thought he would but he is going up against a team that allows 13 ppg and he will be without stud WR N’Keal Harry. You would think that a Mountain West team may have less talent than a Pac 12 team but not in this matchup. Fresno should handle business. I’m also a sucker for bulldog mascots.
4. Eastern Michigan v Georgia Southern: Opening Line 3, Current pk; O/U 47.5
This game is an absolute toss up. I am going to go with Eastern Michigan for a couple reasons though. One is that they are getting points and in a game that I am not completely convinced on I am going to take the points. Two is that Ga Southern is an option team. I always go against option teams when the other team has time to prepare. Thirdly is that Eastern Michigan has a really good defense. It is number 5 in passing yards allowed per game, and number 4 in red-zone defense. Plus MACtion won’t let me down.
5. MTSU v App State: Opening Line 7, Current 7.5; O/U 50
I would normally be worried about App State losing its head coach but the interim coach is the D Line coach. When your interim coach is the D Line coach you know you’re going to be motivated. App State was a top 25 team this year and should’ve beat Penn St in Happy Valley. The talent mismatch is more than 6.5 points. Do not fool around here. App St is the pick.
Other Picks from around the office:
Pat: App St- Lets go Mountaineers, North Texas: Stone Cold Steve Austin went there
Todd: Utah St-Jordan Love greatest QB name of all time, Arizona St because Fresno is not a State, MTSU because App State sounds like a prison exclusively for people convicted of incest.
Nick: North Texas – Joe Greene, Fresno – Bunch of ASU kids in Vegas= no shot, Ga Southern – Eastern Michigan Feels like Canada & Canada stinks at football
Gorman: Arizona State – They play to win the game, MTSU – Head Coach & QB cried after losing conference title game = they are due.
Connor: North Texas – They will be extra mean for the Bowl game, Tulane – There are a lot of waves in Orlando (Idiot, Orlando is in the middle of the state), Arizona St – Most ASU graduates end up in Vegas casinos anyway.
Ty: North Texas: Clear eyes, full hearts, can’t lose.
Bowl Season is 2 days away and it is possibly the greatest time of the year. Mixed in with Saturday NFL games there is basically a football game every day from now until after New Years.
“Ya but Digs, a lot of those games are dog shit that no one cares about.”
There is an easy way to fix that, you bet on every single game and immediately make every single one exciting. You can’t just throw darts at the board though and hope to get wins in these bowl games. You have to do the research during bowl season. I know you don’t have time to do the proper research though so that’s what I am here for.
The reason why you need to do more research during bowl season is because there are so many more variables. During bowl season a team could literally not have a coach, players will sit out for the NFL, Teams just lost a conference game and have no motivation, final exam schedules, resting players with injuries that would normally play, etc. I have spent hours and days gathering all of this information to make the most informed picks of the year.
I have nearly finished my yearly Bowl Season excel spreadsheet that will be the key to us making large amounts of money. Here is a little teaser of the spreadsheet. The good stuff is hidden to the far right and will be revealed here everyday before the games start.
I will be giving out picks for every game in a daily blog on here but to make things more fun I will also be getting picks from every person in the office and seeing who does best this bowl season. I am honestly excited to hear the reasoning for why Pat makes a pick for some Obscure bowl between the Mud dogs and some other Mickey Mouse team. First picks come out Friday Morning.