0-2 Yesterday. Not Great. That’s ok though, we are still 6-4 on the bowl season and up in the money. It’s a marathon. We have 4 games today to get well.
Memphis -3 vs Wake Forest; O/U 73
Memphis feasts on inferior defenses and Wake Forest is an INFERIOR defense. Wake Forest ranks 116th overall in defense and 128th in red-zone defense. I expect the Memphis offense that averages 44 points a game to eat all day. Memphis -3
2. Army -5.5 vs Houston; O/U 60
Like this pick a lot. Army leads the nation in time of possession and is 2nd in the league in rushing. Houston is last in the nation in time of possession and gives up about 200 yards a game rushing. I expect Army to control the game on the ground. The only thing that worries me is that this is the 3rd option team of the year that Houston has faced and has had a few weeks to prepare for it. Houston is also without star Ed Oliver. Im going Army -5
3. Buffalo -1 vs Troy; O/U 49.5
Buffalo is loaded with star players on offense and their defense is not too shabby either giving up only 24 points a game. The Troy defense is also good only giving up 21 points a game but I don’t think their offense is as good especially after losing their starting QB. Buffalo is also motivated to win their first Bowl game ever coming off a 10 win season. Give me Buffalo -1
4. Hawaii -1 vs Lousiana Tech
Home game for Hawaii which makes me question their motivation. Is this really a bowl game to them. Hawaii started the year great averaging 42 points a game but they have recently slumped off to 24 points a game and have gone 1-5 ATS during that time. Louisiana Tech is also slumping going into tonight’s game going 1-3 ATS. The difference in this game is Skip Holtz, LT is 4-0 in bowl games under Holtz and he also is the best coach in the nation as an underdog at 48-24 ATS as an underdog in his career. Im taking LT +1
Good Luck to all. I’m staying away from NFL tonight. Maybe Put Tennessee in a teaser.
EASSSYYYYYYY W Last night with the Thundering Herd taking our Bowl Season record to 6-2 ATS.
We have two games today which means 2 more opportunities to own the book. Lets get into it. WARNING: First Game is at 12:30.
Toledo -7 vs Florida International; O/U 57
There was a huge development in this game yesterday. Starting QB for FIU James Morgan who has 26 TD’s and 7 INT’s on the season was ruled out which sent the line up to 7 and the Total dropped almost 10 points to 57. I was already on Toledo before this news with them being the more talented and tested team this season but with this news I became much more confident. Toledo averages 41 points a game so I think FIU will have a hard time keeping up with a backup QB. Yes I know Toledo has a backup QB too but he went 3-1 to finish the season with the only loss being to MAC champions Northern Illinois. Toledo -7
BYU -13 vs Western Michigan; O/U 52.5
This is a tough game to pick just because the line is so high. Western Michigan was having a really good season before they lost their Starting QB and went 1-3 the rest of the season. BYU has superior talent but they lack a playmaking offense that takes advantage of that talent. In all honesty I wish I didn’t have to pick this game and in personal life I will not be picking this game straight up. But for purposes of picking every game this bowl season I am going with Western Michigan playing off the motivation they are 13 point dogs. In real life I am teasing the Broncos to +20 with Toledo at a pick em.
We are on FIREEEE 5-1 to start bowl season and the excel spreadsheet is doing its job. Who would’ve known that spending 12 hours gathering stats & picks would actually do better than picking games because of a feeling.
Tonights game is a prime example of a game where I really want to take one team but I am sticking with the spreadsheet and what has got me to this point. Tonight’s pick is one that I am very shaky on.
Here is why I want to take Ohio. San Diego St lost four of their final five games. 2 of those games they lost as 18 and 24 point favorites. Not an ideal form to be in rolling into the Bowl Game. On the other hand Ohio has won 5 of 6. San Diego St is 0-5 ATS the last 2 years against non power 5 non conference teams. On the other hand Ohio is 13-2 the last 15 games against teams with a winning record. Ohio also won by 30 in their bowl game last year, they know how to win bowl games. I REALLY WANT TO TAKE OHIO.
HOWEVER, If I go by the spreadsheet that has led to 5-1 so far this bowl season it is a hands down pick for SD State. They started the season 6-1 with wins over Arizona St and Boise. The MWC is a far superior conference to the MAC. San Diego State has the #4 rushing defense in the nation allowing 94 yards a game. Ohio is the #9 rushing team in the nation at 260 yards a game. So if SD St can stop the run they have a very good chance at giving Ohio fits. I am going to stick with the sheet and take San Diego State but I would like it to be known that I am not extremely confident.
Time to bankrupt MyBookie.AG. This is what we have prepared for all season. I have spent hours and hours doing research and I’ve never felt more confident going into a bowl season.
1. Tulane v UL Lafayette: Opening Line 3.5, Current 4; O/U 59
The battle of the bayou in Orlando. Tulane is 1-4 ATS this season as a favorite while ULL is 5-2 ATS this year as an underdog. Tulane also just fired its OC. I have watched Tulane play this year and there is no way I will be betting on them. They are terrible on 3rd down and as a bettor they are incredibly frustrating to watch. ULL has played a very hard schedule with losses to Bama, Miss St, and App St twice so they will not be worried about a team like Tulane. +3.5 is also a line that I have a very hard time laying off of. Give me ULL and the points all day.
2. North Texas v Utah St: Opening Line 11, Current 7.5; O/U 68
This game is going to be all about offense. Utah State is averaging an incredible 47 points a game while North Texas is averaging 36 ppg. Utah State scored over 60 points 4 times so the over in this game is quite an interesting play. On one hand Utah St has lost their head coach Matt Wells to Texas tech so you never know what their motivation will be like but I also think they will be motivated by seeing the line go from 11 to 7.5. Im going to go with the highest scoring team in the MWC over a C-USA team pretty much every day. Give me Utah St -7, Im definitely buying that 1/2 point. Also shoutout Utah St for a gorgeous campus.
3. Arizona St v Fresno St: Opening Line 6, Current 3; O/U 53.5
Fresno should be disgusted that they are currently only a 3 point favorite when they have won 11 games this year against a 7 win Pac 12 team. Herm Edwards has done a lot better than I thought he would but he is going up against a team that allows 13 ppg and he will be without stud WR N’Keal Harry. You would think that a Mountain West team may have less talent than a Pac 12 team but not in this matchup. Fresno should handle business. I’m also a sucker for bulldog mascots.
4. Eastern Michigan v Georgia Southern: Opening Line 3, Current pk; O/U 47.5
This game is an absolute toss up. I am going to go with Eastern Michigan for a couple reasons though. One is that they are getting points and in a game that I am not completely convinced on I am going to take the points. Two is that Ga Southern is an option team. I always go against option teams when the other team has time to prepare. Thirdly is that Eastern Michigan has a really good defense. It is number 5 in passing yards allowed per game, and number 4 in red-zone defense. Plus MACtion won’t let me down.
5. MTSU v App State: Opening Line 7, Current 7.5; O/U 50
I would normally be worried about App State losing its head coach but the interim coach is the D Line coach. When your interim coach is the D Line coach you know you’re going to be motivated. App State was a top 25 team this year and should’ve beat Penn St in Happy Valley. The talent mismatch is more than 6.5 points. Do not fool around here. App St is the pick.
Other Picks from around the office:
Pat: App St- Lets go Mountaineers, North Texas: Stone Cold Steve Austin went there
Todd: Utah St-Jordan Love greatest QB name of all time, Arizona St because Fresno is not a State, MTSU because App State sounds like a prison exclusively for people convicted of incest.
Nick: North Texas – Joe Greene, Fresno – Bunch of ASU kids in Vegas= no shot, Ga Southern – Eastern Michigan Feels like Canada & Canada stinks at football
Gorman: Arizona State – They play to win the game, MTSU – Head Coach & QB cried after losing conference title game = they are due.
Connor: North Texas – They will be extra mean for the Bowl game, Tulane – There are a lot of waves in Orlando (Idiot, Orlando is in the middle of the state), Arizona St – Most ASU graduates end up in Vegas casinos anyway.
Ty: North Texas: Clear eyes, full hearts, can’t lose.
Bowl Season is 2 days away and it is possibly the greatest time of the year. Mixed in with Saturday NFL games there is basically a football game every day from now until after New Years.
“Ya but Digs, a lot of those games are dog shit that no one cares about.”
There is an easy way to fix that, you bet on every single game and immediately make every single one exciting. You can’t just throw darts at the board though and hope to get wins in these bowl games. You have to do the research during bowl season. I know you don’t have time to do the proper research though so that’s what I am here for.
The reason why you need to do more research during bowl season is because there are so many more variables. During bowl season a team could literally not have a coach, players will sit out for the NFL, Teams just lost a conference game and have no motivation, final exam schedules, resting players with injuries that would normally play, etc. I have spent hours and days gathering all of this information to make the most informed picks of the year.
I have nearly finished my yearly Bowl Season excel spreadsheet that will be the key to us making large amounts of money. Here is a little teaser of the spreadsheet. The good stuff is hidden to the far right and will be revealed here everyday before the games start.
I will be giving out picks for every game in a daily blog on here but to make things more fun I will also be getting picks from every person in the office and seeing who does best this bowl season. I am honestly excited to hear the reasoning for why Pat makes a pick for some Obscure bowl between the Mud dogs and some other Mickey Mouse team. First picks come out Friday Morning.
CBS – Check out the entire CFP along with the New Year’s Six games below and keep scrolling for the remainder of the bowl slate.
It’s the best worst time of year as College Football comes to end, starting with Army Navy this Saturday.
Bowl games now don’t really mean too much, a big reason guys like Ed Oliver sit out so that they don’t get hurt going into the NFL draft. With that being said, the games they did decide on were underwhelming and thought there were some serious potential to see if an 8 team playoff really would be worth it going into next year. The first game that should of been scheduled this December was Georgia vs UCF. UCF hasn’t lost a game in two years and the best team not going to the CFP is Georgia. Why wouldn’t you put Georgia against UCF to see if the self proclaimed national champions really are legit. I get their quarterback is hurt and they would probably get blown out, but would be nice to see UCF go up against one of the best. If it was close then that game alone would be a big enough case to turn the CFP to 8 teams. Get rid of that blow away game that every big team has and lets add another week to the CFP. (Georgia vs Texas and UCF vs LSU)
Really, that was the only matchup that I wanted changed with all my college football might. A few other games I wanted to see were LSU vs Michigan and West Virginia vs Washington State. LSU and Michigan was just a game that I wanted to see cause both these teams were at the top of College Football for so many weeks of the season. I really like the Florida/Michigan game but with the defenses of LSU and Michigan, that game would wreak of an all out war. West Virginia and Washington State really should be changed into a game because it would be one of the more entertaining games of the entire season. These are two of the better gun slingers in the whole country and the fact that Will Grier and Gardner Minshew won’t be slinging it against each other is bologna. Not to mention a Mike Leach vs Dana Holderson battle that would have points on points on points.
Two of the games I thought the committee hit the nail on the head with was Ohio State vs Washington and Penn State vs Kentucky. The champions of the Pac 12 and the Big Ten in a bowl game that isn’t the college football playoff is rare so hopefully after Washington gets blown out the Pac 12 will start to get serious about their football again. UCLA and USC have to get back in the action cause right now the Big Ten dominates the Pac 12. Penn State Kentucky will be a great SEC Big Ten game to go with Michigan/LSU. I like this matchup cause of Trace McSorley vs the Kentucky defense. Always thought McSorely was a stud so hopefully he’ll put on a show and Kash Daniels will respond with a few big plays of his own. Very excited for this next month of football and very sad at the same time, lets hope we get some magic to carry us to next years season.