What an incredible weekend we have in front of us. This weekend is second only to the divisional round. Cherish every game that we have left. The playoffs are amazing but they are so bittersweet. We have only 11 NFL games left before we have to take on the worst month of the year without football (February). The best way to go into the offseason is with some cash in your pockets so lets see who’s going to do that for you tomorrow.
- Texans vs Colts: Texans Opened 3 point favorite, Currently 1. O/U 48.5
Lets get into the trends first. These teams split during the regular season with both games being decided by 3 points so there is a great chance this is going to be a close game. That immediately makes me want to tease the Colts up to +7. Andrew Luck has been great against the AFC South going 20-8-3 ATS , The Colts are 3-1 ATS in its last four against the Texans. The one that they didn’t cover was the first game this season where they said they did not want to tie the game. The Texans have not been great against winning teams, they are 1-5 ATS against them but are also 8-2 ATS after a win this year and 6-2 as a home favorite. On the other hand the Colts are 2-3 ATS as away dogs. 2 of those losses however were during their 1-5 SU start. Now that we got all of that out of the way here are my thoughts.
I like the Colts. Houston gave up 60 sacks for the first time since 2006. 60 sacks is absurd. Houstons o-line is a fucking dumpster fire. Sure they have incredible talent with Watson and Hopkins but they need time to make plays. On the other hand Luck has been sacked 9 times in their last 12 games. Fucking 9. The Texans have Watt & Clowney so this will be an awesome part of the game to watch but if they can’t get pressure the Texans secondary is awful. Luck has thrown for 464 and 400 yards against the Texans this season. I like the Colts and the Point or if you got it earlier in the week the points.
Now to the late game.
2. Cowboys vs Seahawks: Dallas opened 3 point favorite, now 1.5; O/U 43.5
Is this game in primetime? Yup. Russell Wilson is 22-7-3 ATS when starting a game at 6 p.m. ET or later, covering by 7.8 points per game. That’s a nice little stat going into tomorrow’s game…here’s a better one. As a home favorite, Jason Garrett is 17-32-1 and 0-2 ATS in the playoffs. The man crumbles when he is supposed to win. Now that Marvin Lewis is gone Jason Garrett is the new mediocre coach that should’ve been let go a while ago. Pete Carroll > Garrett & Wilson > Prescott. The matchup that will be fun to watch is Bobby Wagner vs Zeke. I can see Zeke easily getting 30+ touches. That is the strength of Seattle Defense. If Dallas has a chance they have to take advantage of Seattle’s weaker secondary but I don’t know if Dak has the ability to do that. I am rolling with Seattle and the points in this one plus I kinda like the under.
To Recap: LOVE THE DOGS. I have the Colts +1/+3 and the Seahawks +1.5/+3. I’m also going to do a 6 point teaser with both of them. Lastly, under 43.5 in the Dallas & Seattle Game.
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