HUGE Disclaimer. Yes we went 4-0 last week for the Wild Card picks and had a great weekend. Last weekend I was very confident though. This weekend I have very little confidence so don’t blame me if you follow these picks and they turn out terrible. Here are the picks for Saturday’s 2 games. I will have a blog coming out Saturday morning for Sunday’s 2 games.
Colts +5 @ Chiefs; O/U 56.5
A game of bad trends and one has to be broken. On the bad side for the Colts, Since 1990 dome teams are 12-44 SU & 18-36-2 ATS in outdoor playoff games. On the other side the Chiefs are 0-9 against the spread at home since 1970 in the playoffs. What do those stats mean? Probably nothing for the Chiefs since they have never had a Patrick Mahomes at QB. The indoor teams going outside though I do believe in. Yes, the Colts have been absolutely on fire since they started 1-5 but have they really played anyone great?
I don’t want to take away from what the Colts have done because you have to play your schedule and they have dominated their schedule but they have not played an offense like the Chiefs. The one big worry for me is that the Chiefs are most likely without Eric Berry who makes a huge difference for that defense but I am still going to go with the Chiefs -5. Low confidence pick. Excited for Andy Reid clock management to fuck me.
Now we head out to LA
Cowboys +6.5 @ Rams; O/U 50
Lets first start with the positive trends for both teams. For the Cowboys underdogs are 37-21-1 ATS and dogs of seven or more points are 19-11-1 ATS since 2003 in the divisional round. For the Rams they are 5-1-1 ATS when they have eight or more days between games under Sean McVay. I am slightly worried about McVay vs the ole Clapper when it comes to coaching edge in this matchup. The thing that makes me lean towards the Cowboys is how they handled the Saints offense and how the Bears HANDLED the Rams. Dallas has very similar skill on defense to the Bears. Yes it was in Chilly soldier field but Goff has shown that he is not great under pressure and after being hit a few times. If Dallas can control the clock with Zeke and then put pressure on Goff I like Dallas in this game. I am going to buy a point and get Dallas at +7 as well as take the under 50.
You can Follow all my picks here on the Action Network. We have been on quite a nice little run. As always bet at Mybookie.Ag