Ohio -2.5 v San Diego St; O/U 51.5
We are on FIREEEE 5-1 to start bowl season and the excel spreadsheet is doing its job. Who would’ve known that spending 12 hours gathering stats & picks would actually do better than picking games because of a feeling.
Tonights game is a prime example of a game where I really want to take one team but I am sticking with the spreadsheet and what has got me to this point. Tonight’s pick is one that I am very shaky on.
Here is why I want to take Ohio. San Diego St lost four of their final five games. 2 of those games they lost as 18 and 24 point favorites. Not an ideal form to be in rolling into the Bowl Game. On the other hand Ohio has won 5 of 6. San Diego St is 0-5 ATS the last 2 years against non power 5 non conference teams. On the other hand Ohio is 13-2 the last 15 games against teams with a winning record. Ohio also won by 30 in their bowl game last year, they know how to win bowl games. I REALLY WANT TO TAKE OHIO.
HOWEVER, If I go by the spreadsheet that has led to 5-1 so far this bowl season it is a hands down pick for SD State. They started the season 6-1 with wins over Arizona St and Boise. The MWC is a far superior conference to the MAC. San Diego State has the #4 rushing defense in the nation allowing 94 yards a game. Ohio is the #9 rushing team in the nation at 260 yards a game. So if SD St can stop the run they have a very good chance at giving Ohio fits. I am going to stick with the sheet and take San Diego State but I would like it to be known that I am not extremely confident.
Buy that half point and Get San Diego St +3.